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Krishana Reddy was the head of pharmaceutical company that was trying to develop a new product. Reddy, along with his friend Prabhakar Rao, assessed that such products had mixed success, Reddy and Rao realised that if a new product (a drug)was a success/it may result in sales of 100 crore but if it is unsuccessful, the sale may be only 20 crore. They further assessed that a new drug was likely to be successful 50% of times. Cost of launching the new drug was likely to be 50 crore. Now, Reddy and Rao were in a quandary whether the company should go ahead and market the drug. They contacted Raj, a common friend for advice. Raj was of the opinion that given the risky nature of launch, it may be a better idea to test the market. Rao and Reddy realised test marketing would cost 10 crore. Raj told them the previous test meeting results have been unfavourable 70% of times and success rate of products favourably tested was 80%. Further, when marketing results were unfavourable; the products have been successful 30% of the times. If Rao and Reddy decided to launch the product despite unfavourable test marketing, how much profit/loss can the company expect to earn? |
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(a) |
13.2 crore profit |
(b) |
36.8 crore profit |
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(c) |
46.8 crore loss |
(d) |
16 crore loss |
Cost of product = 60 crore
Now when unfavourable, the success rate is 30% and failure rate is 70%
= 30% of 100 + 70% of 20
= 44 crore
Profit = 44−60 = −16 crore (loss)
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